For a year, one prediction circulated everywhere: artificial intelligence was going to devour consultants' work. Writing reports, analysing data, writing code for companies: everything the big firms bill for, an AI could soon do for a few cents.
The first target named was Accenture, the world's largest consulting and IT services group. Before the summer, its share price had lost around 40% of its value since January.
On Thursday, it had the best day in its history.
What happened
Accenture published its annual results, and they surprised everyone. In its latest quarter, the company posted $18.7 billion in revenue, up 6%, above what analysts had expected. Its new bookings reached $22.2 billion. And it forecasts growth of 3 to 6% for the year ahead, more than Wall Street had hoped for.
The share price jumped by as much as 22% during the day, a record for Accenture, before closing up around 16%. In its wake, other IT services companies, also battered for months, recovered some ground.
Why AI gives it work
The explanation comes down to one idea, which Accenture's chief executive, Julie Sweet, has repeated for months: for her company, the opportunities created by AI weigh more heavily than the work it makes disappear.
A company that wants to use AI does not simply buy a subscription. It has to rethink its ways of working, connect AI to its software and its data, train its teams, check that everything is secure. That project is long, complicated, and most companies do not know how to carry it out alone.
That is exactly what Accenture sells. They are, in a way, the plumbers of AI: the technology is powerful, but someone has to install it in every house.
Falling AI prices amplify the movement. According to Julie Sweet, the cheaper AI becomes, the more her clients want to roll it out, and the more help they need to do so.
Not everyone is convinced. Analysts point out that nearly half of Accenture's revenue still comes from software installation and application development, precisely the activities AI is getting better and better at doing on its own. And even after this jump, the share price is still down more than 18% since January. One exceptional day does not make a trend.
What it says about employment
This story echoes what a French study of job adverts showed on Wednesday: AI does not necessarily make jobs disappear, it changes what you do in them. Accenture's consultants will no doubt spend less time writing reports, and more helping companies transform.
It remains to be seen how long this need will last. Installing AI is today an immense undertaking. Once companies are equipped and the tools have become simpler, far fewer plumbers may be needed.
What we take away
Predictions about AI often have one flaw: they look at what it replaces, and forget what it forces us to build. Accenture has just reminded us that every major technology first creates an enormous amount of installation work.
That is not a guarantee for the future. But it is a good reason to be wary of overly simple prophecies, in either direction.